How Many Sacks Will The Jags Record in 2016?

3/23/2016

A look at how many sacks and the Jags could record with their revamped defense.

By Jordan de Lugo

PRESENTED BY

It's obviously impossible to predict how many sacks a team will have in a season, but here I will examine each defensive player that is currently on the Jaguars roster and try to account for the pass rusher that the Jaguars will certainly spend a high draft pick on, in order to figure out a reasonable estimate of how many sacks the Jaguars will record in 2016.

Malik Jackson - Jackson is coming off a couple of really impressive seasons in Denver in terms of QB pressures, but for some reason big sack numbers have evaded him. In 2015 he recorded 5 sacks despite tallying 60 total QB pressures. Some will argue that he will get more sacks in Jax as he doesn't have to compete for them with the likes of Von Miller and Damarcus Ware, but some will certainly claim that offenses will be able to focus more on Jackson now that he doesn't have the help of Miller and Ware. Despite not having Miller and Ware, Jackson will not be a one man show in Jax and will have help. Jackson is only 26 and should be having the best statistical seasons of his career over the next couple of years.
Sack Range: 5-8

Dante Fowler Jr. - Fowler is coming off of a brutal knee injury, but should be fully healed far before training camp. He shows the athleticism and skill to be a top notch pass rusher in the league, but he will need time to develop as most pass rushers do. Fowler looks to be the clear cut starter at the LEO position and should be able to tee off on the QB in passing situations. Despite his big role in the Jags defense a double digit sack year would be a lot to ask for out of a rookie coming off of knee surgery.
Sack Range: 6-8.5

Sen'Derrick Marks - Marks when healthy can de a dominant interior pass rusher, but the problem is he hasn't been healthy since 2014 and is battling back from a tough upper body injury. If Marks gets anywhere close to regaining his old form, it will be a huge plus for the Jaguars defense. He will likely be in the game for nearly every clear cut passing situation for the Jags defense this season and alongside Malik Jackson could really cause some trouble for interior offensive lines around the league. It is a big if as to whether or not Marks will return to his former self and for that reason it is hard to predict a huge statistical season for Marks in 2016.
Sack Range: 4-7.5

Ryan Davis - Davis is a great role playing pass rusher. Despite his smallish size he excels at rushing the passer against interior lineman. He had his best statistical season (6.5 sacks) when Sen'Derrick Marks was healthy in 2014 and he will benefit greatly from having Marks and Jackson on the field with him in lighting packages this year. Davis is a quality pass rusher when he is put in the right position and will show his stuff in 2016.
Sack Range: 5-7

Jared Odrick - Odrick isn't really asked to get to the QB all that often, but he isn't bad by any means as a pass rusher. Odrick has recorded at least 4.5 sacks in 4 out of the last 5 seasons and will likely hover around that number again. His playing time may be diminished slightly, but his productivity should remain the same as he will be fresher throughout games.
Sack Range: 4-6

Dan Skuta - Skuta was clearly misused in the 2015 version of the Jaguars defense and his role will be adjusted in 2016 to play to his greatest strength, which is rushing the passer. He does play the OTTO, a position that is on the field for less that 40% of the snaps, but the Jaguars will get creative with him this year and he will look more like the 2014 version of himself that recorded 5 sacks for the 49ers than 2015 version that recorded only 1.5.
Sack Range: 3-6

Aaron Colvin - Despite being a cornerback, Aaron Colvin will actually have more of an impact as a pass rusher than some of the Jaguars defensive lineman. Colvin recorded 4 sacks as a sophomore for the Jaguars in 2015 and will likely be able to replicate that success on nickel blitzes in 2016.
Sack Range: 3-5

Telvin Smith - Smith has recorded at least 2 sacks in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. Expect that to stay consistent in 2016 as he will not be asked to get after the QB often.
Sack Range: 2-3

Abry Jones - In each of the last two seasons Jones has recorded at least 2 sacks. He isn't likely to be featured in clear passing situations, so that number could drop.
Sack Range: 1-3

Paul Posluszny - The Poz has never recorded more than 3 sacks in a season as he isn't asked to rush the passer often. Don't look for anything to change in that regard this season.
Sack Range: 1-3

Tyson Alualu - Like Posluszny, Alualu doesn't really get after the QB and that won't likely change in 2016. Don't expect much in terms of pass rush from Alualu this season.
Sack Range: 1-3

Roy Miller - Miller actually recorded 4 sacks in 2015 despite being primarily a run stuffer. Don't look for him to have the same pass rushing success in 2016 as he will likely not be featured in clear passing situations.
Sack Range: 1-3

The rest of the players on the Jaguars defense have no history of being able to get to the QB, but will likely provide a small number of sacks, let's say 3-5. Add to the mix another highly drafted rookie pass rusher and you could get another 4-7 sacks. Even on the low end these sack ranges would suggest that the Jaguars sack totals in 2016 will be improved. Based on the smaller number in these sack ranges the Jaguars would record 43 sacks in 2016 -- an 11 sack improvement and a number that would have placed them inside the top 10 in team sacks for the 2015 season. The point is that the Jaguars pass rush will be greatly improved and if it isn't then heads will roll after the 2016 season.

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